The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache ebook
Page: 496
ISBN: 9780470725221
Publisher: Wiley
Format: pdf

To this end, the justice sector was, wisely, partially exempted from the political isolation law, thanks to back-channel negotiations just prior to the law's passage. Jul 23, 2013 - Three Black Swans Libya's “black swans” are low-probability events that nonetheless occurred, subsequently defining its post-Arab Spring trajectory. To give you some sense of the This increases the probability of a big opening weekend and subsequent buzz for the film. Jun 16, 2011 - Additionally, SocGen also provides a risk map with a black/white swan distribution curve, which identifies the biggest growth outlook downside and upside risks. The first black swan was that Libya even had a successful revolution. After the first wave of uprisings began in . Thu, 06/16/2011 - 04:50 | Link to Comment falak pema · falak pema's picture. By definition, a Black Swan event is . Feb 6, 2013 - Taleb is famous not only for being a retired options trader, but also for his books, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets, and Antifragile: Things That On one end of the continuum are things Taleb describes as fragile — such as glass. As of now, it appears more likely that the “Chernobyl” end of the spectrum is a more likely result; and thus, the odds of something MASSIVELY market roiling emerging from Japan increase with each passing day. Aug 20, 2012 - Jeff Frankel argues that thinking of black swans as "events of inconceivably tiny probability" is incorrect: A Flock of Black Swans, by Jeffrey Frankel, Commentary, Project Syndicate: Throughout history, major political and economic shocks to revert to power in the event of his death (which he did), and that the war was started pretty much single-handedly by Conrad, I doubt that getting whacked in Sarajevo figured as any sort of "out in a blaze of glory" style end for him. Once upon a time I knew a "Black Swan". May 29, 2007 - Black swan events can be positive as well, such as the end of the cold war. Low probability events with potentially high impact are ibecoming more frequent, but paradoxically, have lower than expected impacts. Tsar Ivan the terrible and Tsar Peter had protected Russia against the inroads of European nobility and the vatican for centuries but it all came to an end with a murderous bloody communist slavery. You care about the probability times the size of the impact, the expectation of these events. Jan 21, 2010 - How do you end up with high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations? Aug 22, 2013 - I have written “early and often” of the “Black Swan” events that could occur at any given time; in turn, throwing the political, economic, and/or social landscape into turmoil. Mar 31, 2009 - This week he interviews Nassim Taleb , the author of Fooled by Randomness and the Black Swan of a few years ago. May 17, 2013 - The reign of the Tsars would end in communist slavery. Bottom line: not a report of the intellectual Thu, 06/16/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Yen Cross · Yen Cross's picture. Another scenario which could be characterized under black swan would be a granite wall weighing thousands of tons, called Cumbre Viejo in the canary islands.